| Symbol | Date | Long Trend | Short Trend | MV Rank |
| EPP | 08/08/2011 | Neg | 1.08% | 4 |
| VB | 08/08/2011 | Pos | 0.97% | 9 |
| IEV | 08/08/2011 | Pos | 0.91% | 6 |
| EWJ | 08/08/2011 | Pos | 0.62% | 3 |
| IVV | 08/08/2011 | Pos | 0.36% | 7 |
| DBC | 08/08/2011 | Pos | 0.30% | 1 |
| TLT | 08/08/2011 | Neg | 0.13% | 2 |
| RWR | 08/08/2011 | Neg | -0.03% | 5 |
| ADRE | 08/08/2011 | Neg | -0.42% | 8 |
| ILF | 08/08/2011 | Pos | -0.43% | 10 |
| Analysis: Negative overseas - 6 6(Int) |
| Selection: VB for week of 08/15/2011 |
After 3 weeks out, I'm back in. Missing last week hurt as VB did well but due to John's work and a little sidestepping, I have outperformed the S&P by over 39 points in the last 25 weeks. The market was due for a rebound as at one point I think we had 8 days in a row of lower prices. Other than last Friday, the moves on the DOW were all in excess of 400 points. Volume is still weak but it's also that time of year. Volume usually starts to pick up in September.
ReplyDeleteThe big item still on everyone's mind is Europe and Italy in particular. The ECB has decided to start issuing Eurobonds to buy Italian and Spanish debt which lowered yields. This was never suppose to happen as I mentioned last week, country specific issues were to always to remain, country specific in the Eurozone. Apparently the ECB flinched. This will be the big story going forward and the US will not go unaffected if it turns ugly. Many people I read are saying, "No way out". My current macro guess is the Fed will join the party (again) and this time, will also be a buyer of sovereign debt from Italy, Spain, etc.. too many of our banks are exposed. QE3 has a high probability as far as I am concerned.
Jobless claims and retail sales came out better last week. Both positives. The Consumer Confidence survey came out poor and has fallen to a 31-year low. This isn't good since our economy is so consumer driven.
The AA+ status of US-T debt is a non-event thus far. Yields continue to drop on the short-end but the 30-year auction last week had a very difficult time and rates at the long-end went up as a result. Putin over in Russia referred to the US as a financial parasite on the world... or something like that.. can't say I disagree.
Nothing to say this week on commodities. Oil rebounded and gold continues to do well. One play I'm looking at is buying GDX and GDXJ as the miners have lagged GLD significantly. There will be a mean reversion but will it be GLD down or the miners up? I'm guessing miners up unless oil goes crazy up. I'm looking forward to John adding GLD to the Asset Class selections.
Sean