| Symbol | Date | Long Trend | Short Trend | MV Rank |
| ILF | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 2.57% | 8 |
| ADRE | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 1.90% | 10 |
| TLT | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 1.64% | 3 |
| VB | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 0.91% | 11 |
| RWR | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 0.73% | 5 |
| EWJ | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 0.68% | 4 |
| EPP | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 0.59% | 6 |
| IVV | 08/15/2011 | Neg | 0.48% | 9 |
| IEV | 08/15/2011 | Pos | 0.04% | 7 |
| GLD | 08/15/2011 | Neg | -0.91% | 2 |
| DBC | 08/15/2011 | Neg | -1.86% | 1 |
| Analysis: Selection based on prediction magnitude and Rank MV |
| Selection: ILF for week of 08/22/2011 |
The big pain last week came on Thursday when the markets opened down big and then lost more after the Philly Fed Manufacturing index came out. It was a ginormous miss. This particular Fed index has 90% correlation with predicting a recession. Jobless claims came in about the same. So far this earnings season 60% of the companies who have reported have beaten estimates. This is a greater % than last quarter. Number of companies raising guidance vs. lowering guidance is almost flat and that spread is decelerating from prior quarters. This points to a potential slowdown. Many economists and market watches are thinking we are heading into a recession if not already in one. On the technical side of things, most indicies now have bearish charts in that the 50-day has crossed the 200-day. Another bearish indicator is building permits have dropped in the recent reporting period. Mutual fund outflows are big but this can be a contrary sign meaning we'll get a small run up. Europe still represents the biggest unknown. Germany is not on-board with ECB issuing Eurobonds and Germany is calling the shots right now. Our banks are very exposed to this. BAC continues to crater and they may need $50B put onto their balance sheet to remain solvent. Libya looks like that will settle very soon which means oil may drop for a bit with their 1.3M bbl/day coming back on the market. Gold is still the flight to safety but man... has TLT had a run the last few weeks. Last week was no exception. US-T at AA+ is a non-event. I wish I had some good macro economic news to report but... I don't. The big event this week is Jackson Hole, WY. It's the annual Fed event and people are expecting QE3 to be announced or something like it. If the Fed signals they will start taking on more assets onto their balance sheet, expect all asset prices to rise.. stocks, commodities, metals, etc..
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