| Symbol | Date | Long Trend | Short Trend | MV Rank |
| TLT | 09/06/2011 | Pos | 2.12% | 2 |
| GLD | 09/06/2011 | Neg | 1.83% | 3 |
| ILF | 09/06/2011 | Pos | 0.68% | 10 |
| RWR | 09/06/2011 | Pos | 0.54% | 4 |
| EWJ | 09/06/2011 | Pos | 0.41% | 6 |
| EPP | 09/06/2011 | Pos | 0.24% | 5 |
| IVV | 09/06/2011 | Pos | -0.59% | 7 |
| IEV | 09/06/2011 | Neg | -0.64% | 11 |
| DBC | 09/06/2011 | Neg | -0.69% | 1 |
| ADRE | 09/06/2011 | Pos | -1.69% | 8 |
| VB | 09/06/2011 | Neg | -5.29% | 9 |
| Analysis: More than 8 negative signals with positive TLT - 8 |
| Selection: TLT for week of 09/13/2011 |
Crazy week.. everything looked positive for equities until Friday when most of the gains were given back. Most economic signs point to a continued recovery such as trade, which improved in July, non-mfg ISM number was higher than expected.
ReplyDeleteOn the downside, bad jobs report from prior Friday essentially showing zero jobs growth. We need about 130k-150k jobs created each month just to keep up with population growth. Big news out of Europe was the Swiss are pegging the Franc to the Euro. The Swiss, who have done everything right, are going to get killed if they don't get this correct. The markets are now pricing a 92% chance that Greece will default on its sovereign debt. If this happens, the banking exposure is very big and many European banks will be undercapitalized. US banks have exposure to the Euro banks. In my opinion, this is the biggest risk to the global economy. This will be 2008/2009 all over again and worse if this happens. Greece is now issuing 1-year gov't bonds at 40%.. that's pay-day loan rates. Italy passed austerity plans, this also is no small matter as Italy is the 3rd largest economy in Euroland. The other interesting point came out of Brazil where they lowered rates. This portends a slowing economy for the largest of the LAM countries. From a housing perspective, even with mortgage rates at 4.23%, refi applications fell by 6.3%.
President's jobs speech was largely a non-event but I think it was viewed as a short-term negative by the markets. The situation in Europe trumps everything still.
I did not get in TLT today. I am still thinking cash is an ok spot. I did buy EPV on Monday morning which is 2x inverse of IEV (Europe). I will likely buy EUO which is 2x inverse Euro but I haven't made up my mind. The hedge bet right now is to short the Euro and go long the dollar.